Our Macro and Market Forecasts for 2021 and 2022
We are prepared for some nasty economic data in the winter months, but warmer weather and the rollout of the COVID vaccines will change the macro picture substantially starting from Q2 2021.
- We expect a very strong rebound and enormous catch-up potential, with China already leading the way.
- Inflation, however, remains subdued. As such, we expect central banks to continue bond purchase programmes, resulting in low real bond yields.
- Risky assets, especially equities, should benefit from the attractive combination of low real yields and a recovering economy.