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MACRO RESEARCH
December 2020

Global View Outlook 2021


Foreword
GlobalView
The COVID pandemic and resulting restrictions are set to weigh on the global economy over the winter months. Yet the breakthrough to an effective vaccine, sets the stage for a broader global economic recovery in 2021, which will be supported by generous fiscal transfers and monetary accommodation. We expect developed markets’ government bond yields to increase moderately over the next 6 to 12 months, mostly driven by higher inflation expectations. We anticipate more dollar weakness, while the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen should benefit from attractive real interest rates and their safe-haven status. Gold should consolidate in 2021 as US real interest rates are unlikely to fall much further. The ongoing cyclical recovery in equity markets is set to continue in 2021, with value stocks and UK equities likely to deliver above-average returns. Over the medium- and long term, we continue to expect the highest returns in EM equities and technology stocks.
Please find our full “Outlook 2021” publications, with detailed forecasts for all asset classes. We wish you a happy and successful year 2021.
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