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MACRO RESEARCH
June 2019

Global View – Q3 2019


Foreword
GlobalView
Fears of a global recession have receded as the global economy is slowly turning around. The US economy should keep expanding at a decent pace thanks to good fundamentals, while Europe appears to be turning the corner. The escalation in US-China trade tensions is likely to weigh on business sentiment in the near-term, yet a shared desire to avoid a global slowdown should incentivize both leaders to reach a compromise later this year. We expect global bond yields to move up slightly by year end, even if the bottoming process might need more time during Q3.
We expect an accommodative US monetary policy and a likely re-acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2019 to prop up global equity markets into mid Q3, at which point some risk reduction should become advisable.

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