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MACRO RESEARCH
December 2021

Global View: Outlook for 2022

Global View Outlook 2022
The narrative with regard to transitory inflation is increasingly being challenged by markets. Supply chain disruptions are easing only slowly, demand for goods and services remains strong, also thanks to the strong fiscal stimulus measures, and wage pressures in the US are evident. Therefore, central banks in the dollar markets will need to remove monetary accommodation earlier than they would have wanted, given their objective of maximizing employment. We expect some upside to bond yields and flatter yield curves, particularly in the dollar markets. Upward pressure for rate expectations will also persist in Europe next year, although to lesser degree, hence we also expect a moderate rise in bond yields. A more hawkish Fed will likely lead to a strong US dollar over the coming months, however, we expect it to fade in the second half of the year as the rest of the world catches up with US growth momentum. A weaker dollar should provide some relieve for gold in the second half of 2022. While we expect equity markets to grind higher as earnings expectations remain strong, upside will be limited as valuations remain elevated and a more hawkish Fed will be a continued headwind.
Please find our full “Global View Outlook for 2022” publications, downloadable in English, French, German and Spanish, with detailed forecasts for all asset classes.
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