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MACRO RESEARCH
March 2019

Global View – Q2 2019


Foreword
GlobalView
Global growth is set to slow further in the near term. But we expect the world economy to rebound somewhat in the second half of the year, in part reflecting looser macroeconomic policy in China.
The US should continue to grow above its trend rate, allowing the Fed to tighten policy again later this year as global risks recede. Interest rates are likely to stay at lower levels for a longer period of time and the rise in bond yields in 2019 will only be moderate.
Equity markets are likely to move higher into mid-year on the back of an accommodative Fed and still robust earnings growth, warranting a shift into cyclical sectors in Q2 2019.

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