Our team of expert economists, researchers and strategists bring clarity to the latest market trends and developments that matter
China improving as Western economies remain in quagmire
03.04.2020 Many US companies have announced layoffs and production shutdowns aimed at reducing virus contagion, implying that the drop in global activity...
06.03.2020 The exponential spread of coronavirus cases outside China has led to great uncertainty in financial markets in recent weeks... Read More
Global View Outlook 2020
02.12..2019 The global manufacturing cycle appears to be bottoming out and we expect the rec
overy to strengthen into 2020. However, growth will probably remain moderate, so that central banks should maintain an easing bias and maintain accommodative liquidity conditions...Read More
Recession firefighting going full speed
27.03.2020 US initial jobless claims spiked to a whopping 3.3 million persons on March 26... Read More
This is not only a temporary shock
20.03.2020 Financial market participants may have learned three things this week... Read More
Central banks alone cannot save the world this time
13.03.2020 Equity markets sold off after the Fed cut its rate by 50bp last week and they also did not like the policy package of the ECB or the messages of Mme Lagarde... Read More
We now expect a U-shaped economic recovery
06.03.2020 We have changed our baseline scenario for this year’s outlook and expect that the economic consequences of the spread of Covid19 will be longer lasting and more severe than we had assumed so far... Read More
Coronavirus and financial markets in four scenarios
28.02.2020 The perception in financial markets of the outbreak of Coronavirus has changed in the past as more infections have been reported outside of China... Read More
Bond yields are grinding lower
21.02.2020 Uncertainty about the extent and the duration of the current disruption caused by the Coronavirus outbreak continues to drive global fixed income markets... Read More
Taking a break from the Coronavirus this week
14.02.2020 It seems that markets are taking a break from worrying about the Coronavirus and are waiting for a clearer picture of whether the speed at which the virus is spreading will decline or not.... Read More
CIO Update: Resilient financial markets
10.02.2020 Financial markets have been subjected to two endurance tests so far this year.After the markets quickly absorbed the shock from the escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran at the beginning of January, it also appears that the fast-spreading coronavirus has not become a stumbling block... Read More
Risk markets have ticked off the Coronavirus for now
07.02.2020 The Coronavirus continues to spread and could easily knock off up to 1% of Chinese GDP in 2020, with the pain concentrated at the start of the year... Read More
Coronavirus unleashes flight to safety
31.01.2020 The rapid spread of the Coronavirus has led to a flight for safety this week, with bond yields dropping markedly and risk assets selling off... Read More
Coronavirus emerges as a new threat to global markets
24.01.2020 Equities in China and Hong Kong have fallen sharply in recent days as the outbreak of the Coronavirus escalated... Read More
‘Phase one’ done
17.01.2020 The ‘phase one’ deal signed in Washington earlier this week sealed a truce in the US-China trade war that has been ongoing for almost two years... Read More
CIO Update: What is priced in?
10.01.2020 2019 was one of the best years ever recorded for investing in financial markets. Double-digit returns for multi-asset portfolios were not the exception but the rule. Read More
Looking through near-term risks
10.01.2020 Financial markets powered ahead this week as investors shrugged off concerns about a conflict between Iran and the US and instead concentrated on hopes for an upturn in the global business cycle... Read More
Our favourites for the festive season
20.12.2019 It is again the time of the year when you might be more concerned whether your last minute online purchases will arrive before Christmas than you care about the latest retail sales data..... Read More
Is this a new "love fest" among central bankers?
13.12.2019 Is this a new “love fest”? Or just a pre-Christmas consensus among western central bankers? In any case, it is remarkable how much views have converged among them.... Read More
CIO Update: Trade war rollercoaster ride
06.12.2019 After recent months saw an easing of the US-China trade war with both sides dialing down the rhetoric, negotiations have now reached a critical stage... Read More
Forecasts for 2020 and 2021
06.12.2019 Next week the US-Fed, the ECB and the SNB meet and publish their new macro forecasts. So do we in this Weekly. Our forecasts include the view that no policy rate changes can be expected by any of the central banks next week and neither in 2020 or 2021... Read More
CIO Update: "In a good place"
08.11.2019 Jerome Powell, President of the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), pointed out on numerous occasions in recent months that the US economy was «in a good place»... Read More
CIO Update: In gold we trust
04.10.2019 Despite mounting growth concerns, we do not believe a global recession is the most likely scenario...Read More
Global View - Outlook Q4 2019
02.09.2019 The escalation in the trade war is likely to weigh on corporate investment. While the risk of a global recession has clearly risen, we still expect the expansion to persist in the foreseeable future. Read More
Read more about our pioneering thought leadership and research on investing sustainably
Heading to Paris: net zero emissions by 2050
06.04.2020 The latest issue is devoted to the challenge of Climate Change and the question how investors can identify the winners and losers and embed climate considerations into their equity, bond and real estate portfolios... Read More
Lessons from the Corona crisis
30.03.2020 The Global Corona Crisis, which has swept the world in 2020, will be remembered as a turning point in history... Read More
SDGs: The decade of action is dawning
03.01.2020 This latest issue is devoted to the impact investors can have by aligning themselves with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)...
J. Safra Sarasin celebrates 30 years of sustainable investing
02.10.2019 In this special edition, we highlight J. Safra Sarasin’s 30-year anniversary and key achievements in sustainable investments. It is devoted to the Bank’s journey in becoming a pioneer and leader in sustainable investments.
01.04.2019 When it comes to the concept of sustainable investments, many investors still only think of exclusions for the time being. However, the range of instruments has been greatly expanded over the years.
07.01.2019 Electromobility is on everyone's minds: as an investment theme, as a fun factor, but above all as a solution to climate change. However, it is less well known that the real estate sector is also an important jigsaw piece in the fight against global warming.
26.09.2018 The summer of 2018 has brought an unprecedented heatwave to the Northern hemisphere. Forest fires have raged from Sweden down to Greece, claiming the lives of many victims.Read More
Living among robots
29.08.2018 Technological progress and economic growth have triggered an unprecedented expansion phase of robotics adoption and applications across sectors.Read More
Institutional Spotlight: How Sustainability Helps to Achieve Stable Returns in Real Estate
04.03.2020 In recent discussions about Sustainable Investing, real estate is an area that often garners less attention. However, buildings are a significant contributor to energy consumption and climate change, and real estate owners and managers have a key role to play in efforts to fight climate change. Moreover, we find that integrating sustainability into our real estate investment process brings certain advantages:
Gives a holistic view of investment properties that provides deeper insights
Provides us with a clearer picture of the interdependence of economic, social and environmental factors on property returns
Identify upcoming attractive real estate regions that may otherwise be overlooked.
Institutional Spotlight: Sustainable High Yield: A Defensive Approach With Great Return Potential
04.12.2019 While the spotlight on sustainable investing has mostly been focused on the equity space, we believe the momentum for fixed income is now catching up. Our latest Institutional Spotlight explores 1) Why integrating a sustainability approach into the high yield bond universe makes sense 2) Several key benefits of integrating sustainability with high yield, including our findings that sustainable high yield issuers tend to default less frequently 3) Why active management plays an important role in a sustainable high yield portfolio....Read More
Institutional Spotlight: Sustainable Thematic Returns in a Growth-challenged World
30.08.2019 In today's low growth environment, investors can find attractive returns through the powerful combination of sustainable and thematic investing. Sustainable investing helps to capture valuable insights that would have otherwise been overlooked by traditional investing frameworks. Meanwhile a thematic approach helps to harness long-term structural growth opportunities. This powerful combination leads to finding high quality growth companies...Read More
Institutional Spotlight: Big value in small caps
11.06.2019 In this issue, we delve deeper into our analysis on small cap companies and how they can offer investors higher average returns over the long-term. Our analysis shows that small caps outperform during phases of economic recovery and expansion, but they tend to lag during downturns and recessions...Read More
Institutional Spotlight: Why invest in Total Return strategies?
03.2019 We explore the attraction of unconstrained fixed income strategies and how this investment style can be relevant for many institutional clients. In contrast to equities, active fixed income managers tend to outperform their passive peers, in part due to several drawbacks that come with trying to replicate a fixed income benchmark...Read More
Institutional Spotlight: An adaptive allocation to overcome challenges for the pension system
11.2018
We discuss several challenges faced by many pension systems today, including changing demographics, depressed long-term expected returns and the prospect of a cyclical downturn…
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